Ladies and gentlemen, it’s happening. Flakes are falling, mountaintops are turning white, Instagram feeds are filling with highlights from last year, and chairlifts are begrudgingly starting to turn again. Ski season is here.
The first thought of many skiers and snowboarders when they see their first snow-capped peak of late Autumn is this: will this be a good snow year? This anxiety-provoking question is especially prevalent with skiers after the weather gods disappointing performance in Montana last ski season. So, will this be another disaster of a snow year, or have our prayers been answered?
The simple answer is probably yes, the snow dances worked. Let’s break it down.
First we’ll talk weather patterns, specifically El Niño versus La Niña.
2024-25 is predicted to be a La Niña winter, which is good news for Montana and the Northern Rockies. In a La Niña year, stronger trade winds and cold water upwelling along the Pacific coast moves the jet stream north, directly across our beloved Northern Rocky Mountain ski hills. La Niña typically means colder and wetter winters in the northern United States and dryer and warmer winters in the south.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting La Niña conditions to emerge by the end of November. Accordingly, NOAA is predicting below average temperatures for the northern US, namely Washington, Oregon, most of Idaho, Montana, and the Dakotas. Higher than normal precipitation levels (this means snow) are also expected to occur in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, and northern Wyoming.
NOAA’s seasonal precipitation and temperature outlooks. Images courtesy of NOAA.
The remainder of the continental US should be expecting a warmer and dryer than normal winter. This is bad news, as the majority of these states are currently experiencing long-winded drought.
But at least the north-west is set for lots of pow turns. On The Snow’s lead meteorologist Chris Tomer concurs with NOAA’s prediction, with Montana’s own Discovery making his list of resorts that “receive the most snow.”
In fact, the ski industry as a whole agrees with this take. Ski Magazine, POWDER, Freeskier, and SnowBrains all predict above average snowfall and below average temperatures for the north-west US. Powderchasers, widely considered as the pacesetter in ski season predictions, went so far as to refer to the upcoming season as “robust”, with “ideal conditions for deep snowpack and prolonged ski seasons.”
A handful of resorts across the region have already opened their ticket offices and turned on their chairlifts, with more on the way soon, speaking to the accuracy of the industry’s prediction.
The bottom line is this: La Niña is coming, and with her she brings the thing that both keeps us up at night with anticipation and fills our dreams with sweet sweet slashes, pillow drops, and face shots. The 2024-2025 season is shaping up to be one to remember, and Montana is going to be right in the center of it all.
Everyone keep doing your snow dances and making sacrifices to the snow gods, and we’ll see you out on the slopes sooner rather than later. Pray for snow.
