With the first snowflakes already fallen, Montana’s skiers and snowboarders have only one thing on their mind; is it going to be a good snow year for the northern Rockies? The simple answer is no, probably not.
To best understand good versus bad snow years, you have to understand the weather patterns of El Niño and La Niña. They’re caused by wind patterns in the Pacific ocean, and can affect the yearly temperatures and precipitation levels for the Rockies and all of North America. Both occurrences peak in the winter, so they can lead to major changes for ski season.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), normally upwelling (when colder water rises from the deep ocean) occurs off the Pacific coast because of winds blowing warmer water away, towards Asia.
In an El Niño year, the trade winds weaken, and the warm water that is normally pushed east stays along the west coast. This causes the Pacific jet-stream to move south, causing more precipitation in the southern US and warmer, dryer conditions in the north.
La Niña is the opposite. Trade winds get stronger, pushing more warm water away from North America and causing more cold water to upwell. This moves the jet-stream south, sometimes making it a polar jet-stream. This leads to a colder winter with higher precipitation levels in the nouth and dryer, warmer winters in the south. It can also sometimes lead to more severe hurricane seasons, but typically ski season is over by then so it doesn’t really matter.
The Climate Prediction Center is predicting a 75-85% chance of a “strong” El Niño year, one of the strongest on record. We’ve had three La Niña winters in a row, so the warm waters had to come back at some point.
What does this mean for ski season? Well, the Northern US can expect an average-to-low snow year and warmer temperatures, which means that when we get snow, it might not stick around for as long as we might hope. Ski areas in the south like Mammoth and Palisades Tahoe, which are coming off a record setting snow year, could be set to break those records.
But as for Montanans, don’t expect any records to be broken. Sure, we’ll get a couple powder days (fingers crossed) but it shouldn’t be an amazing snow year for the northern Rockies. But just because it’s not a good snow year doesn’t mean it can’t be a good ski season.
